There are a number of reasons to be encouraged by Ron Paul’s showing
The morning after Ron Paul’s stronger-than-expected 10% showing in http://www.wvwnews.net/story.php?id=2810 was no surprise to Paul supporters (and probably disappointing to some), but it had to come as a bit of a surprise to most of the pollsters. Over the past week, most pollsters had Paul in the 5-8% range. So 10% pushes the limit on “margin of error” and suggests that Paul supporters have been right all along. His support is underrepresented in the polls.
Paul wasn’t the only candidate the pollsters were wrong about. Rudy Giuliani was consistently polling in mid-teen double-digits up until about a week ago, but he ended at 4%. He had fallen to the 5-8% range within the past few days, but 4% has to be considered a monumental drop for him. Mike Huckabee’s poll numbers were consistently 5 points lower than what he actually got. The other candidates were pretty much in line with what the pollsters thought they would get.It’s not a surprise that Huckabee picked up extra points the night of the caucus. People love to vote for the likely “winner,” which is probably where his extra 5% comes from, but the Giuliani and Paul numbers should give pollsters pause to reconsider. Essentially, it looks like Giuliani lost the lion’s share of his support to Paul and Huckabee.
http://www.nolanchart.com/article924.html