Ethnic vote may swing French election
Voter registrations have jumped in France’s multi-ethnic suburbs and, with the election too close to call, ethnic voters may hold the key to the presidency. Electoral lists have swollen in several suburbs hit by 2005 riots, according to official figures, thanks in part to a voter registration drive by opponents of right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy.
The former interior minister’s pledge to clean crime-ridden estates with a power hose and rid them of the “scum” poisoning life there stoked animosity towards him, especially in areas with a high ethnic minority population. Polls show Sarkozy leads Socialist Segolene Royal and centrist Francois Bayrou ahead of the first round on April 22.
A new poll credits Royal with 57% support among voters of black African and North African origin, a figure well above the national average, compared to 19% for Bayrou and just 11% for Sarkozy.“(Sarkozy) hasn’t found the right language and many young people have registered to vote recently in the suburbs. There’s a strong movement,” said Francois Soudan, editor of the “Jeune Afrique” weekly that ordered the Ifop poll of 526 black voters. Interior ministry figures show voter lists up 8.5% in the past year in Seine-Saint-Denis, birthplace of the 2005 riots that were the worst in France for 40 years.
Patrick Lozes, head of the black pressure group CRAN, said France’s 1.5 million voters of black African and North African Arab origin could decide the race.
In 2002, far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen stunned France by grabbing second place behind President Jacques Chirac in the first round, pushing Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin out of the race.
“If you remember that 200,000 votes separated Lionel Jospin from Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2002 presidential election, then obviously you will see that blacks will make the difference in voting booths in 2007,” Lozes said.
France does not keep statistics on the ethnic make-up of its population and its ethnic communities are not as structured as the black, Jewish and Hispanic communities in the United States. All the French presidential candidates are white.
Jean-Francois Doridot of pollster Ipsos is sceptical about the existence of an “ethnic vote” in France and says it was hard to say who the newly registered voters will support. “Mathematically, they could make the difference, notably in terms of qualifying for the second round which could be a matter of 200,000 or 300,000 votes.
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